Congdon Ministries International

 

Internet Bible Institute

Brexit News Update:


Dateline: January 25, 2017

Robert Congdon

Greer, SC 29651


I have been holding off any discussion on Brexit until the UK Court ruled on whether the Parliament must vote for Brexit or not. You will recall that Brexit stands for the British (the United Kingdom) exit from the 28 member European Union (EU).


On June 23, 2016, the British voted 52% to 48% to leave the EU. Under the EU treaty a country can withdraw following a 2-year process of withdrawal. As a result of the people's vote, Prime Minister Cameron resigned and Theresa May became the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. She promised to begin the formal action (EU Article 50) by the end of March 2017. Legal challenges began which lead up to the current UK Supreme Court decision requiring Parliament to vote on the action.


Some background: Britain did not join the EU at its inception but remained independent until a 1975 referendum approved by a 67% vote to join. In my analysis below you must keep in four factors. 1) the vote in the UK was not overwhelming for withdrawal. Scotland and Wales did not have one "county" vote to leave. This set up a substantial division in the country as a whole. Scotland is the most socialistic country in the UK and strongly wants to remain in the EU. As a result, a strong independence movement may well require a second Scottish referendum to separate from the UK and remain in the EU. 2) The primary driving force for withdrawal is the massive immigration from Muslim nations and the issue of free trade. Businesses depend heavily upon the tariff-free trade with Europe. Withdrawal could result in higher costs of goods from outside the UK. 3) While a major economic power in the EU, the UK's influence is less than that of Germany and France, thereby restricting their control of policy and economics. 4) Biblical prophecy (Daniel 7 and others) indicates that during the 7-year Tribulation, a reformed, revitalized Roman Empire will govern Europe and the Middle East, following the battle of Gog-Magog (Ezekiel 38, 39). See my video series on this battle at CMI-TV by going to www.CongdonMinistries.org .


Because of this last reason and the fact that I view the EU is the embryo of Daniel's last world empire, I cannot envision the complete breakup and destruction of the EU. I do believe that current events are pushing the EU to reform and revise its government in such a way that it is possible a ten-region EU will be formed to replace the nationalistic present system of 28 countries.


I further believe that the final EU or Reformed Roman Empire will encompass all the lands once part of the ancient Roman Empire and those countries (the US, Canada, South America) that are "descendents" of the peoples of that empire. The catch is to decide what period of the Roman Empire's geographic lands should be considered, for that affects the actual final form.


Final outcome of the UK and the EU will largely depend upon the people of the UK. The EU cannot afford to allow a country to leave on its own. The EU would have no problem in putting a country out (Greece could potentially be forced out for not following EU economic rules) but the EU, similar to the USA during the 1850's and early 1860's, cannot allow a nation to secede. I believe they will do everything in their power to force the UK to re-vote and decide to remain in the EU. This pressure will be very subtle and indirect. The economic power of the EU is strong over the UK, particularly the business world and the banking world. Leaving would probably impose a financial social burden on the UK greater than the burden of paying taxes to the EU.


With the vote in Parliament, this may open the door to either rejection by its members, or result in a fall of the majority party and a new election, which could threaten May and her invoking Article 50 of separation.


There are four possible outcomes of Brexit.


  1. 1)the UK stays in the EU following a second referendum vote of the people

  2. 2)they stay in the EU customs union (includes countries in and outside of the EU), which would allow her to share in a system of tariffs and import quotas governed by the EU over all customs union members - this allows an independent immigration policy, continued free trade with EU countries, and not allow free trade with any outside the customs union

  3. 3)reach a free trade agreement with the EU as a separate country will keeping immigration control in UK hands, and

4) trade with all countries under the World Trade Organization rules and tariffs.


In a later newsletter I will expand on these as it becomes clearer what path the UK will follow. I believe they will follow either the first outcome and stay within the EU or join the customs union. This second option does allow the EU some control and still could result in no immigration control by the UK people. Remember, immigration was a prime reason for the passage of the withdrawal referendum.


In the days ahead, look to see how the EU will make the cost of leaving the EU greater and greater. It is their hopes that the Brits will reconsider. Interestingly, it took three attempts for the UK to join the EU. Also, EU policy is for countries to keep re-voting until they get the vote right, the one favoring the EU.


Finally, with growing nationalism, spearheaded by President Trump, and taking root in the Netherlands, France, and appearing in Germany, the EU establishment must act to prevent further growth of nationalism. For nationalism is totally contrary to the principle of the EU and its global agenda. The world is at a crossroad. If it moves back to nationalism, a concept created back after the Tower of Babel by God's dispersion of peoples, the EU and any further global empire is pushed down the road and with it some of the latter day events.


But never forget, "...that the living may know that the most High ruleth in the kingdom of men and giveth it to whom so ever he will..." (Daniel 4:17) and that what God planned before the foundation of the world, will come to pass, including the Rapture, then the Tribulation, and the Second Coming of the Lord to establish His Millennial Kingdom. For in Daniel 2 verse 45 at the end, "the dream is certain and the interpretation thereof sure."


Also, the Rapture can happen at any moment and is not dependent upon the EU or governments.


Robert Congdon

Director Congdon Ministries International


For previous article on Brexit click here.